The Opening Line — 12 game board, no position yet

The Oracle. Monday, August 31. 12 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

• UMass @ Rutgers

  MASS 0-0 at RUTG 0-0 · line RUTG -28.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET

• Bethune @ UCF

  BCU 0-0 at UCF 0-0 · line UCF -42.5 · total O/U 57.5

  Invalid Date ET

• Akron @ Wake Forest

  AKR 0-0 at WAKE 0-0 · line WAKE -24.5 · total O/U 48.5

  Invalid Date ET

• Merrimack @ Delaware

  MRMK 0-1 at DEL 0-0 · line DEL -27.5 · total O/U 55.5

  Invalid Date ET

• West Georgia @ Kennesaw St

  WES 0-1 at KENN 0-0 · line KENN -23.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 15c KENN

• UAlbany @ Buffalo

  ALB 1-0 at BUFF 0-0 · line BUF -24.5 · total O/U 48.5

  Invalid Date ET

Here's the board. Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET. Massachusetts Minutemen are 0-0, Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-0. The book has it RUTG -28.5, O/U 51.5. BTN from SHI Stadium. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are 0-0, UCF Knights are 0-0. The book has it UCF -42.5, O/U 57.5. ESPN+ from Acrisure Bounce House. Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Akron Zips are 0-0, Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-0. The book has it WAKE -24.5, O/U 48.5. ACC Network from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Merrimack Warriors are 0-1, Delaware Blue Hens are 0-0. The book has it DEL -27.5, O/U 55.5. ESPN+ from Delaware Stadium. West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. West Georgia Wolves are 0-1, Kennesaw State Owls are 0-0. The book has it KENN -23.5, O/U 51.5. Prediction market is paying 15 cents on Kennesaw State Owls. ESPN+ from Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. UAlbany Great Danes are 1-0, Buffalo Bulls are 0-0. The book has it BUF -24.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN+ from Broadview Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

The book. Equity is $5000.00 against a five thousand dollar start, $5000.00 of that sitting in cash. No tickets closed yet, so realized P and L is flat at zero. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

• Colorado @ Georgia Tech

  COLO 0-0 at GT 0-0 · line GT -6.5 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET

• San José St @ E Michigan

  SJSU 0-1 at EMU 1-0 · line EMU -3.5 · total O/U 55.5

  Invalid Date ET

Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. Colorado @ Georgia Tech: market has COLO at 30 cents, my fair value is 31 cents — 1 cents of edge. FPI has COLO at 42c, the number implies 20c, the market is paying 30c. San José St @ E Michigan: market has SJSU at 39 cents, my fair value is 40 cents — 1 cents of edge. FPI has SJSU at 48c, the number implies 32c, the market is paying 39c. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

• AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri

  UAPB 1-0 at MIZ 0-0 · line MIZ -54.5 · total O/U 60.5

  Invalid Date ET

• Colorado @ Georgia Tech

  COLO 0-0 at GT 0-0 · line GT -6.5 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET

• E Illinois @ Minnesota

  EIU 1-0 at MINN 0-0 · line MINN -42.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET

• Idaho @ Utah

  IDHO 0-1 at UTAH 0-0 · line UTAH -34.5 · total O/U 57.5

  Invalid Date ET

Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it MIZ -54.5, O/U 60.5. SEC Network from Memorial Stadium. Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Colorado Buffaloes are 0-0, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 0-0. The book has it GT -6.5, O/U 50.5. ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Eastern Illinois Panthers are 1-0, Minnesota Golden Gophers are 0-0. The book has it MINN -42.5, O/U 51.5. Peacock from Huntington Bank Stadium. Idaho Vandals at number 21 Utah Utes, Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET. Idaho Vandals are 0-1, Utah Utes are 0-0. The book has it UTAH -34.5, O/U 57.5. ESPNU from Rice-Eccles Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

• Memphis @ UNLV

  MEM 1-0 at UNLV 0-1

  Final 27–21

• Hawai'i @ Stanford

  HAW 0-1 at STAN 1-0

  Final 27–37

• New Mexico St @ Florida St

  NMSU 0-1 at FSU 1-0

  Final 17–34 · Kalshi 29c FSU

• Sacramento St @ E Michigan

  SAC 0-1 at EMU 1-0

  Final 17–28

• Jax State @ N Dakota St

  JVST 0-1 at NDSU 1-0

  Final 7–33 · Kalshi 29c NDSU

Recaps — these are done, nothing to bet here. Memphis Tigers 27, UNLV Rebels 21, final. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 27, Stanford Cardinal 37, final. New Mexico State Aggies 17, Florida State Seminoles 34, final. Sacramento State Hornets 17, Eastern Michigan Eagles 28, final. Jacksonville State Gamecocks 7, North Dakota State Bison 33, final. Those results go straight back into the model for the next slate.

Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5000.00 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.