The Tuesday Tape — 12 game board, no position yet

The Oracle. Tuesday, September 1. 12 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

• UMass @ Rutgers

  MASS 0-0 at RUTG 0-0 · line RUTG -28.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET

• Bethune @ UCF

  BCU 0-0 at UCF 0-0 · line UCF -42.5 · total O/U 59.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c UCF

• Akron @ Wake Forest

  AKR 0-0 at WAKE 0-0 · line WAKE -24.5 · total O/U 48.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 95c WAKE

• Merrimack @ Delaware

  MRMK 0-1 at DEL 0-0 · line DEL -28.5 · total O/U 55.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 98c DEL

• West Georgia @ Kennesaw St

  WES 0-1 at KENN 0-0 · line KENN -23.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 96c KENN

• UAlbany @ Buffalo

  ALB 1-0 at BUFF 0-0 · line BUF -24.5 · total O/U 48.5

  Invalid Date ET

Here's the board. Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET. Massachusetts Minutemen are 0-0, Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-0. The book has it Rutgers Scarlet Knights -28.5, O/U 51.5. Big Ten Network from SHI Stadium. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at UCF Knights, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats are 0-0, UCF Knights are 0-0. The book has it UCF Knights -42.5, O/U 59.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on UCF Knights. ESPN+ from Acrisure Bounce House. Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Akron Zips are 0-0, Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 0-0. The book has it Wake Forest Demon Deacons -24.5, O/U 48.5. Kalshi is paying 95 cents on Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Atlantic Coast Conference Network from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Merrimack Warriors at Delaware Blue Hens, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. Merrimack Warriors are 0-1, Delaware Blue Hens are 0-0. The book has it Delaware Blue Hens -28.5, O/U 55.5. Kalshi is paying 98 cents on Delaware Blue Hens. ESPN+ from Delaware Stadium. West Georgia Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. West Georgia Wolves are 0-1, Kennesaw State Owls are 0-0. The book has it Kennesaw State Owls -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 96 cents on Kennesaw State Owls. ESPN+ from Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium. UAlbany Great Danes at Buffalo Bulls, Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET. UAlbany Great Danes are 1-0, Buffalo Bulls are 0-0. The book has it BUF -24.5, O/U 48.5. ESPN+ from Broadview Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

• AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri

  UAPB 1-0 at MIZ 0-0 · line MIZ -54.5 · total O/U 60.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c MIZ

Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 60.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Missouri Tigers. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Across 10 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 91 cents, and 8 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles: market 59 cents on EMU, CutbackPredict fair value 59 cents. That is 0 cents.

The book. Equity is $5000.00 against a five thousand dollar start, $5000.00 of that sitting in cash. No tickets closed yet, so realized P and L is flat at zero. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

• San José St @ E Michigan

  SJSU 0-1 at EMU 1-0 · line EMU -3 · total O/U 56.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 59c EMU

• Colorado @ Georgia Tech

  COLO 0-0 at GT 0-0 · line GT -6.5 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 70c GT

Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. San José St @ E Michigan: market has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 59 cents, my fair value is 59 cents — 0 cents of edge. football power index has Eastern Michigan Eagles at 53 cents, the number implies 65 cents, the market is paying 59 cents. Colorado @ Georgia Tech: market has Colorado Buffaloes at 31 cents, my fair value is 31 cents — 0 cents of edge. football power index has Colorado Buffaloes at 42 cents, the number implies 20 cents, the market is paying 31 cents. No ticket written on these yet — the desk fills when the price comes to my number, not before.

• San José St @ E Michigan

  SJSU 0-1 at EMU 1-0 · line EMU -3 · total O/U 56.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 59c EMU

Here is the one trade idea off today's board, spelled out so you can run it yourself. The market is 59 cents on EMU in San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan Eagles, and CutbackPredict fair value is 59 cents. Entry trigger: a resting limit bid at 53 cents — I do not pay up, the price comes to me. Stop is 45 cents, a hard exit, no debate. Target is 61 cents, which is fair value plus a couple of cents of drift. Sizing: one percent of a $5000.00 bankroll, $50.00 of risk, roughly 6 contracts at that stop distance. Invalidation: a starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against the side, or the contract trading through 45 cents before kickoff. Any of those and the order comes off the board.

• AR-Pine Bluff @ Missouri

  UAPB 1-0 at MIZ 0-0 · line MIZ -54.5 · total O/U 60.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c MIZ

• Colorado @ Georgia Tech

  COLO 0-0 at GT 0-0 · line GT -6.5 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 70c GT

• E Illinois @ Minnesota

  EIU 1-0 at MINN 0-0 · line MINN -42.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c MINN

• Idaho @ Utah

  IDHO 0-1 at UTAH 0-0 · line UTAH -35.5 · total O/U 57.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 99c UTAH

Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at number 25 Missouri Tigers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 1-0, Missouri Tigers are 0-0. The book has it Missouri Tigers -54.5, O/U 60.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Missouri Tigers. Southeastern Conference Network from Memorial Stadium. Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Colorado Buffaloes are 0-0, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are 0-0. The book has it Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6.5, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET. Eastern Illinois Panthers are 1-0, Minnesota Golden Gophers are 0-0. The book has it Minnesota Golden Gophers -42.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Minnesota Golden Gophers. Peacock from Huntington Bank Stadium. Idaho Vandals at number 21 Utah Utes, Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET. Idaho Vandals are 0-1, Utah Utes are 0-0. The book has it Utah Utes -35.5, O/U 57.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Utah Utes. ESPNU from Rice-Eccles Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $5000.00 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. This is a public paper bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.