Gameday Live — 4 live tickets, 20 on the board

The Oracle. Saturday, September 5. 20 games on the board, 4 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

• North Texas @ Indiana

  UNT 0-0 at IU 0-0 · line IU -40.5 · total O/U 56.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c IU

• East Carolina @ Alabama

  ECU 0-0 at ALA 0-0 · line ALA -27.5 · total O/U 52.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 97c ALA

• Oregon St @ Houston

  ORST 0-0 at HOU 0-0 · line HOU -21 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 92c HOU

• Coastal @ West Virginia

  CCU 0-0 at WVU 0-0 · line WVU -21 · total O/U 54.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 93c WVU

• New Hampshire @ Syracuse

  UNH 0-1 at SYR 0-0 · line SYR -35.5 · total O/U 55.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 99c SYR

• Ohio @ Nebraska

  OHIO 0-0 at NEB 0-0 · line NEB -23.5 · total O/U 46.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 95c NEB

Here's the board. North Texas Mean Green at number 6 Indiana Hoosiers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. North Texas Mean Green are 0-0, Indiana Hoosiers are 0-0. The book has it Indiana Hoosiers -40.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Indiana Hoosiers. FOX from Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). East Carolina Pirates at number 13 Alabama Crimson Tide, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. East Carolina Pirates are 0-0, Alabama Crimson Tide are 0-0. The book has it Alabama Crimson Tide -27.5, O/U 52.5. Kalshi is paying 97 cents on Alabama Crimson Tide. ABC from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Oregon State Beavers at number 23 Houston Cougars, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Oregon State Beavers are 0-0, Houston Cougars are 0-0. The book has it Houston Cougars -21, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on Houston Cougars. ESPN from TDECU Stadium. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at West Virginia Mountaineers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 0-0, West Virginia Mountaineers are 0-0. The book has it West Virginia Mountaineers -21, O/U 54.5. Kalshi is paying 93 cents on West Virginia Mountaineers. TNT from Milan Puskar Stadium. New Hampshire Wildcats at Syracuse Orange, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. New Hampshire Wildcats are 0-1, Syracuse Orange are 0-0. The book has it Syracuse Orange -35.5, O/U 55.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Syracuse Orange. Atlantic Coast Conference Network from JMA Wireless Dome. Ohio Bobcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Ohio Bobcats are 0-0, Nebraska Cornhuskers are 0-0. The book has it Nebraska Cornhuskers -23.5, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 95 cents on Nebraska Cornhuskers. FS1 from Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE). That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

• North Texas @ Indiana

  UNT 0-0 at IU 0-0 · line IU -40.5 · total O/U 56.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c IU

Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is North Texas @ Indiana. North Texas Mean Green at number 6 Indiana Hoosiers, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. North Texas Mean Green are 0-0, Indiana Hoosiers are 0-0. The book has it Indiana Hoosiers -40.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Indiana Hoosiers. FOX from Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). Across 20 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 92 cents, and 17 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is Liberty Flames at James Madison Dukes: market 68 cents on JMU, CutbackPredict fair value 75 cents. That is 8 cents.

The book. Equity is $5272.13 against a five thousand dollar start, $3259.21 of that sitting in cash. 11 closed tickets, 10 of them green, realized +$268.98. 4 open, marked +$9.48 on current prices.

• Liberty @ James Madison

  LIB 0-0 at JMU 0-0 · line JMU -6 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 68c JMU

Ticket 1, graded 2 stars: I'm long JMU on Liberty @ James Madison. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Liberty Flames at James Madison Dukes, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Liberty Flames are 0-0, James Madison Dukes are 0-0. The book has it James Madison Dukes -6, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 68 cents on James Madison Dukes. ESPNU from Bridgeforth Stadium. Entry was 66 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 75 cents, so that's 9 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 56 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 78 cents. Risk on the ticket is $63.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 632 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 56c or if JMU trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has JMU at 72c; the number implies 78c; the market is paying 66c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long APP on Maine @ App State. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 88 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 96 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 78 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 99 cents. Risk on the ticket is $63.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 632 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 78c or if APP trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has APP at 93c; the number implies 98c; the market is paying 88c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long USM on Alcorn St @ Southern Miss. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 91 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 98 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 81 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 99 cents. Risk on the ticket is $63.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 632 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 81c or if USM trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has USM at 98c; the number implies 98c; the market is paying 91c; both reads agree tight.

Grading the book. MIA on Miami @ Stanford, in at 92 cents, won for +$0.48. USC on Fresno St @ USC, in at 92 cents, won for +$0.42. MSU on Toledo @ Michigan St, in at 77 cents, won for +$1.05. MSU on Toledo @ Michigan St, in at 92 cents, lost for −$0.92. EMU on San José St @ E Michigan, in at 27 cents, won for +$1.45. That's 10 and 1 graded, +$268.98 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

• Liberty @ James Madison

  LIB 0-0 at JMU 0-0 · line JMU -6 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 68c JMU

Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. Liberty @ James Madison: market has James Madison Dukes at 68 cents, my fair value is 75 cents — 8 cents of edge. football power index has James Madison Dukes at 72 cents, the number implies 78 cents, the market is paying 68 cents, both reads agree tight. The ones that clear my filter are already ticketed above.

Classroom time. The Kelly criterion. It's the formula that tells you what fraction of the bankroll a given edge justifies. Full Kelly is aggressive, so the desk runs quarter Kelly — a quarter of what the math allows — which keeps the drawdowns survivable while still pressing real edges. Edge divided by the payoff odds, then take a quarter of it. That's the whole formula.

Classroom time. Today: buying yes versus buying no. You don't have to back a team — you can fade one. If a favorite is trading at eighty-two cents and you think that's rich, you buy the no at eighteen cents. Same game, same dollar payout, you're just taking the other chair. New traders only ever buy the side they like; pros trade whichever side is mispriced.

Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

• Lafayette @ UConn

  LAF 0-0 at CONN 0-0 · line CONN -19.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 92c CONN

• Bryant @ Army

  BRY 1-0 at ARMY 0-0 · line ARMY -37.5 · total O/U 50.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 99c ARMY

• Tarleton St @ Bowling Green

  TAR 1-0 at BGSU 0-0 · line BGSU -1.5 · total O/U 48.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 53c BGSU

• Ball State @ Ohio State

  BALL 0-0 at OSU 0-0 · line OSU -49.5 · total O/U 56.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 100c OSU

Now the games I am previewing but not trading — no ticket, no position, just the read. Lafayette Leopards at UConn Huskies, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Lafayette Leopards are 0-0, UConn Huskies are 0-0. The book has it UConn Huskies -19.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on UConn Huskies. UConn+ from Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Bryant Bulldogs at Army Black Knights, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Bryant Bulldogs are 1-0, Army Black Knights are 0-0. The book has it Army Black Knights -37.5, O/U 50.5. Kalshi is paying 99 cents on Army Black Knights. CBSSN from Michie Stadium. Tarleton State Texans at Bowling Green Falcons, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET. Tarleton State Texans are 1-0, Bowling Green Falcons are 0-0. The book has it Bowling Green Falcons -1.5, O/U 48.5. Kalshi is paying 53 cents on Bowling Green Falcons. ESPN+ from Doyt L. Perry Stadium. Ball State Cardinals at number 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, Sat, Sep 5, 12:30 PM ET. Ball State Cardinals are 0-0, Ohio State Buckeyes are 0-0. The book has it Ohio State Buckeyes -49.5, O/U 56.5. Kalshi is paying 100 cents on Ohio State Buckeyes. Big Ten Network from Ohio Stadium. My model doesn't show enough separation from the market on those, so I pass.

Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 4 open tickets is $252.80, 4.8 percent of a $5272.13 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.