The Sunday Settle — 3 live tickets, 3 on the board

The Oracle. Sunday, September 6. 3 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

• Washington St @ Washington

  WSU 0-0 at WASH 0-0 · line WASH -23.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 94c WASH

• Wisconsin @ Notre Dame

  WIS 0-0 at ND 0-0 · line ND -20.5 · total O/U 46.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 92c ND

• Louisville @ Ole Miss

  LOU 0-0 at MISS 0-0 · line MISS -6.5 · total O/U 54.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 70c MISS

Here's the board. Washington State Cougars at number 17 Washington Huskies, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET. Washington State Cougars are 0-0, Washington Huskies are 0-0. The book has it Washington Huskies -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on Washington Huskies. NBC from Husky Stadium. Wisconsin Badgers at number 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Wisconsin Badgers are 0-0, Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 0-0. The book has it Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20.5, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on Notre Dame Fighting Irish. NBC from Lambeau Field. number 24 Louisville Cardinals at number 9 Ole Miss Rebels, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Louisville Cardinals are 0-0, Ole Miss Rebels are 0-0. The book has it Ole Miss Rebels -6.5, O/U 54.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Ole Miss Rebels. ABC from Nissan Stadium. That's the working slate — the ones I price, and the ones I pass on.

• Washington St @ Washington

  WSU 0-0 at WASH 0-0 · line WASH -23.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 94c WASH

Quick read on the slate. The one I'd put on the front page is Washington St @ Washington. Washington State Cougars at number 17 Washington Huskies, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET. Washington State Cougars are 0-0, Washington Huskies are 0-0. The book has it Washington Huskies -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on Washington Huskies. NBC from Husky Stadium. Across 3 priced boards the average favorite is trading around 85 cents, and 2 of them are chalk outside the fifteen to eighty-five cent band — those are fee traps, not trades. The widest gap my model shows is Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels: market 70 cents on MISS, CutbackPredict fair value 77 cents. That is 7 cents.

The book. Equity is $5948.69 against a five thousand dollar start, $4814.81 of that sitting in cash. 30 closed tickets, 23 of them green, realized +$618.46. 3 open, marked +$0.26 on current prices.

• Louisville @ Ole Miss

  LOU 0-0 at MISS 0-0 · line MISS -6.5 · total O/U 54.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 70c MISS

Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long MISS on Louisville @ Ole Miss. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. number 24 Louisville Cardinals at number 9 Ole Miss Rebels, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Louisville Cardinals are 0-0, Ole Miss Rebels are 0-0. The book has it Ole Miss Rebels -6.5, O/U 54.5. Kalshi is paying 70 cents on Ole Miss Rebels. ABC from Nissan Stadium. Entry was 69 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 77 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 59 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 81 cents. Risk on the ticket is $68.60, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 686 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 59c or if MISS trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has MISS at 74c; the number implies 80c; the market is paying 70c; both reads agree tight.

• Wisconsin @ Notre Dame

  WIS 0-0 at ND 0-0 · line ND -20.5 · total O/U 46.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 92c ND

Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long ND on Wisconsin @ Notre Dame. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Wisconsin Badgers at number 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET. Wisconsin Badgers are 0-0, Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 0-0. The book has it Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20.5, O/U 46.5. Kalshi is paying 92 cents on Notre Dame Fighting Irish. NBC from Lambeau Field. Entry was 92 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 97 cents, so that's 4 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 82 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 99 cents. Risk on the ticket is $71.10, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 711 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 82c or if ND trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has ND at 94c; the number implies 99c; the market is paying 92c; both reads agree tight.

• Washington St @ Washington

  WSU 0-0 at WASH 0-0 · line WASH -23.5 · total O/U 51.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 94c WASH

Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long WASH on Washington St @ Washington. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Washington State Cougars at number 17 Washington Huskies, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET. Washington State Cougars are 0-0, Washington Huskies are 0-0. The book has it Washington Huskies -23.5, O/U 51.5. Kalshi is paying 94 cents on Washington Huskies. NBC from Husky Stadium. Entry was 88 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 94 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 78 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 96 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WASH, or the contract trading through 80c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WASH at 88c; the number implies 99c; the market is paying 93c.

Grading the book. CAL on UCLA @ California, in at 20 cents, won for +$1.66. WKU on Western KY @ Nevada, in at 18 cents, won for +$2.27. UCLA on UCLA @ California, in at 48 cents, won for +$2.27. UNLV on UNLV @ Hawai'i, in at 53 cents, won for +$2.00. NU on S Dakota St @ Northwestern, in at 81 cents, won for +$1.26. That's 8 and 4 graded, +$110.47 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

• Louisville @ Ole Miss

  LOU 0-0 at MISS 0-0 · line MISS -6.5 · total O/U 54.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 70c MISS

• Wisconsin @ Notre Dame

  WIS 0-0 at ND 0-0 · line ND -20.5 · total O/U 46.5

  Invalid Date ET · Kalshi 92c ND

Now the model board — this is CutbackPredict fair value against what the market is actually paying. Louisville @ Ole Miss: market has Ole Miss Rebels at 70 cents, my fair value is 77 cents — 7 cents of edge. football power index has Ole Miss Rebels at 74 cents, the number implies 80 cents, the market is paying 70 cents, both reads agree tight. Wisconsin @ Notre Dame: market has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 92 cents, my fair value is 97 cents — 5 cents of edge. football power index has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 94 cents, the number implies 99 cents, the market is paying 92 cents, both reads agree tight. The ones that clear my filter are already ticketed above.

Classroom time. The trade you'll never regret: the pass. Most of the board most days is efficiently priced, and the correct position is flat. Forcing action because you watched a game is how accounts bleed out by a thousand cuts. The desk takes zero when there's no edge — and on this show, the zero counts as a decision, not a failure.

Classroom time. Mechanics of an actual trade. Every order I write has three prices before I send it: an entry — the most I'm willing to pay, a stop — the price where I admit I'm wrong and exit, and a target — the price where I take profit. Write all three first. If you can't name your stop, you don't have a trade, you have a hope.

Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $140.40, 2.4 percent of a $5948.69 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.