Playbook
How to trade college football markets
The workflow is the same every week: form a probability, price the gap, size it small, and know in advance what kills the trade.
Last updated August 2026
1. Build your own probability first
Start from a rating system, adjust for confirmed injuries, weather and rest, and write the number down before you look at the market. Anchoring on the price first is how you talk yourself into a bad line.
2. Measure the gap in cents
If your model says 58% and the contract trades at 51¢, that is a seven-cent gross edge. Subtract fees and a cushion for model error; if less than two cents survives, pass.
3. Size with fractional Kelly
Full Kelly on a seven-cent edge is far too aggressive for a market this noisy. Quarter to half Kelly keeps a bad month survivable — on a $5,000 bankroll, roughly $50 to $150 per game.
4. Write the invalidation before entry
Name the specific event that ends the trade: starter ruled out, wind forecast doubling, or the price moving three cents against you on volume with no news.
5. Manage the exit, don't just settle
Most of the edge realizes before kickoff as the market converges on your number. Scaling out into that move locks in the edge you actually identified instead of converting it into a coin flip.
Quick answers
How much bankroll do I need to start?
Enough that a single contract is a small fraction of it. A few hundred dollars is workable; sizing discipline matters far more than the starting number.
Should I trade live in-game?
Only with a fast data feed. In-game prices move on every snap, and a delayed feed guarantees you trade stale information.
How many games per week should I trade?
Two to six. Selectivity is the edge; volume for its own sake reliably converts a positive expectation into fees.
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