Fair value on a Kalshi game contract

A game contract settles at $1.00 or $0.00, so its price is a probability with a dollar sign in front of it. 41¢ means the market gives that team a 41% chance. Fair value is simply your own version of that number.

The point spread is the most information-dense number available. Convert it: a 3-point favorite wins roughly 59–60% of the time, 6.5 points about 70%, 7 points about 72%, 10 points about 80%, 14 points near 88%. That conversion is your first fair-value estimate.

Then move the number for the things priced late: a backup quarterback (typically 4–7 points of team strength), 15+ mph wind on a pass-first offense, a short week on the road, or a rivalry game sitting on the schedule the following Saturday.

You buy at the ask. If your fair value is 64¢ and the market is 55 bid / 58 ask, your real edge is six cents, not the nine the midpoint flatters you with. Subtract the fee and a cushion for model error before deciding.

A twenty-cent edge in a market with $200 resting on the offer is a paper edge. Read the depth on both sides before sizing — the desk publishes the bid-versus-offer share on every card for exactly this reason.