Fair value
Model-priced college football picks
A model-priced pick shows its work: what the market charges, what the model thinks it is worth, and the gap between them in cents. Without that gap there is no pick.
Last updated Updated daily during the 2026 season
Model-priced college picks
Compare fair value to the market before risking a dollar
Every published ticket shows what the market charges, what the model says the outcome is worth, and the exact plan for entering and exiting.
How a pick earns its place
From model price to published trade
- 01
Model the game
CutbackPredict prices the matchup independently and produces a fair win probability.
- 02
Find the gap
The desk compares fair value with the live market and skips anything below the edge threshold.
- 03
Define the trade
Entry, stop, target, size and invalidation are set before the position is published.
- 04
Log the result
Every ticket stays on the public ledger and settles only from the final official score.
See the product
One real ticket, fully open
The rest of the board
Members unlock every qualifying ticket, including side, entry, fair value, stop, target, size, thesis and invalidation.
- Real-time college selections
- Six-ticket maximum
- Cancel anytime
The public trade log
Results stay visible after kickoff
- Starting bankroll
- $5,000
- Settled record
- 76-21
- Win rate
- 78%
- Total P&L
- +$10,895
Live from the college ledger. Open positions are marked to market; settled results use final official scores only.
Choose your desk
Unlock every college selection
College is $19.99 a month. Add the NFL desk for $29.99 total. Checkout is secure, access opens after payment, and you can cancel anytime.
College Football
$19.99 per month
- Every college selection in real time
- Entry, stop, target & sizing
- Written thesis & invalidation
- Live 9:00am–5:00pm ET desk
Billed monthly. Cancel anytime.
College + NFL Combo
$29.99 per month
- Everything in both packages
- College and NFL tickets in real time
- Full member P&L across both books
- Best value — save $10 a month
Both books for less than buying them apart. Cancel anytime.
NFL Private Desk
$19.99 per month
- Every NFL ticket in real time
- Entry, stop, target & sizing
- Written thesis & invalidation
- Member dashboard & settled record
Billed monthly. Cancel anytime.
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Secure checkout · all plans bill monthly and cancel anytime · refund policy
Two prices on every ticket
The market price is what you pay. Fair value is what the model says the outcome is worth. A contract trading at 44c with a model fair value of 54c carries a ten-cent edge, and that number is printed on the card next to the entry — not buried in a recap afterwards.
The threshold is eight cents. Below that, the difference is inside the model's own error bars and the pick is not worth the spread.
Why fair value beats a win-loss record
Records are easy to flatter: bet heavy favourites and post a gaudy hit rate while losing money. Pricing is harder to fake. If a pick enters at 44c against a 54c fair value and the market drifts to 52c before kickoff, the edge was real whatever the scoreboard eventually says.
That is why the ledger tracks profit factor, drawdown and season P&L alongside win rate — the numbers that reveal whether the pricing is actually working.
Sizing, stops and the bankroll
Each ticket risks about two percent of a $5,000 bankroll. The stop marks the price at which the thesis is dead; the target marks the price at which the edge has been collected. Both are set before entry, and the college book never holds more than six live positions at once.
How fair value is calculated →Read a free sample ticket →View membership pricing →
Quick answers
What does model-priced mean?
Every pick carries two numbers: what the market charges for the outcome and what the model says it is worth. The pick exists only because those two disagree by at least eight cents.
Why show fair value at all?
Because it makes the pick falsifiable. You can check whether the edge was real by watching where the price settled, instead of taking a record on faith.
How is position size decided?
Roughly two percent of a $5,000 bankroll per ticket, adjusted for the distance to the stop, so a bigger edge with a tighter invalidation gets more capital than a marginal one.
What happens when the edge disappears?
The ticket closes and is marked in the ledger, win or lose. Nothing is quietly deleted, and nothing is regraded after the fact.
What does it cost?
$19.99 a month for the college board, $29.99 for college plus NFL. One sample pick per board is always free. Cancel anytime.
Watch The Oracle trade it live
Every entry, exit and pass is narrated and posted to a public ledger — plus the CutbackPredict Daily Edge Show and a running season P&L.
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